Preview: UFC 280
UFC 280 is upon us, and the card is stacked. In the main event, we have Charles Oliveira fighting Islam Makhachev for the vacant lightweight title—a title Oliveira previously held until he lost it on the scale at UFC 274. This fight against Makhachev will be Oliveira's fourth title fight in a row, winning the previous three and his last 11. Makhachev is going into his first title fight on a ten-fight winning streak.
The co-main event is bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling making his second title defense against former champion TJ Dillashaw. The last headline fight is former bantamweight champion and number one contender Petr Yan fighting number 11 Sean O'Malley.
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
Oliveira and Makhachev are examples of how you can have two different iterations of the same fighter type. They're both grapplers who come forward and use striking to set up grappling exchanges. Oliveira is the longer of the two, who puts out more volume and constantly marches forward without resets. He's like an avalanche crashing downhill, every move feeding into the next with no pause for the opponent to think or adjust.
Makhachev is the stronger of the two, who generally likes to press forward, but not if it's not on his terms. He will reset and move laterally and burn out the clock until he finds an opening. Makhachev is a strategic fighter, whereas Oliveira is an algorithmic fighter, where the last attack informs the next attack.
Oliveira's last four fights have been against fighters willing to crash into Oliveira and oblige him in trading in the pocket. Since this is ultimately a 50/50 scenario, Oliveira tends to get hurt, but since the fight is on his terms, he can make adjustments and outlast his opponents in the chaos.
Oliveira wants the clinch, and so does Makhachev, but their goals are different once they get there. Oliveira wants a continuous onslaught until he gets a finish. Makhachev's goal is elegantly simple: smash. But what does it mean to smash?
Makhachev, like his former teammate and now coach Khabib Nurmagomedov, doesn't emphasize the takedown, but what happens AFTER the takedown. Keep your opponent on the ground while constantly applying downward pressure. If you're rolling with someone at the gym and they submit you, that's part of the game, and you roll again. But if they smash you, even if they don't submit you, you don't want to roll with them again. Being smashed is not only more physically taxing but also mentally.
Oliveira's willingness to go to the ground makes him a tough match-up for Makhachev. The fear of being taken down makes fighters hesitate against Makhachev, which has them missing opportunities to hurt him, and hurting Makhachev is what will make him hesitate.
Makhachev has gotten stuck in guillotines in the past, which is one of Oliveira's best submissions. However, that usually comes against wrestlers whom Makhachev couldn't take down with a bodylock.
Oliveira always has an explosive first round, but Makhachev is fine with having uneventful rounds. Makhachev is also happy to be chased, only to get a takedown against an opponent coming forward. It's also as his opponents come forward that he catches them with his left straight and left high kick.
Makhachev being a mobile southpaw grappler poses new threats to Oliveira. Makhachev will be further away and harder to clinch. Against Dustin Poirier, a southpaw boxer, Oliveira reached a lot to close the gap. He also used rear front kicks to close the distance. Those are all opportunities for Makhachev. Oliveira has had corrective eye surgery, but his improved vision shouldn't be a difference-maker against a grappler. Once the fight goes to the ground, the size, strength, and patience of Makhachev will make the difference.
Oliveira expends a lot of energy in everything he does, making him both dangerous and fun to watch. Makhachev won't expend that same energy. I think Makhachev plans to make this a battle of attrition and force Oliveira to expend more energy than he does, then smash him. Oliveira wants Makhachev to be a step behind in everything he does and get sloppy.
Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw
Sterling is the younger, bigger, more active champion. Dillashaw has been out for a long time from both performance-enhancing drugs and a litany of injuries. Sterling should be the easy pick, but stylistically Dillashaw poses several challenges. First, Dillashaw doesn't tire. Second, Dillashaw is a tricky kicker who also stance-switches. Third, Dillashaw will wrestle. Fourth, Dillashaw is durable.
Sterling can outstrike strikers, but he doesn't hurt them. Part of his striking success is an extension of his ground success. Like Makhachev, the more dominant he is on the ground, the more success he finds standing.
Sterling doesn't necessarily have poor stamina; it's more that he has an incredibly high output. Where it'll get interesting is if Dillashaw gets takedowns early or the fight goes into the fourth and fifth rounds. But can Dillashaw prevent going to the ground and getting his back taken? If he does get his back taken, can he fight off the choke for the rest of the round? Much like Charles Oliveira, back exposure against Sterling, even for a second, is a second too long.
The best defense for Dillashaw will be to take the initiative. Either make Sterling defensive or kick Sterling when he's shooting, as Marlon Moraes did. Even threatening knees and kicks can make Sterling hesitate.
But the ground isn't the only way for Sterling to win. If he can get Dillashaw to chase him, he can use his reach to land counters on the back foot and outpoint him. Dillashaw, we know, can make adjustments in the middle of the fight. He showed that against Cory Sandhagen. In both of his fights with Petr Yan, we saw Sterling fade.
Like Makhachev, I think Dillashaw will look for opportunities while dragging the fight out. Unlike Makhachev, however, Dillashaw has a proven track record for hurting his opponents while standing. Sterling, on the other hand, will want to make Dillashaw miss, then keep scoring and win the rounds. If Dillashaw gets frustrated, that's when Sterling will take him down and look to finish. The question is, what happens when they clinch? Will that be an opportunity for Dillashaw to do to Sterling what he did to Sandhagen? Or will that be an opportunity for Sterling to out-grapple Dillashaw? Sterling will want this to be a submission grappling match, preferably one where he's still fresh. But Sterling should have adjusted his output now that he's fought five-round title fights. SHOULD.
Petr Yan vs. Sean O'Malley
Sean O'Malley went from fighting mostly obscure fighters to a contender's fight. That's a big jump in competition. Another significant change, not fighting in Las Vegas. He's had ten fights in the UFC, including Contender Series, all of them in Vegas. Petr Yan has already fought twice in Abu Dhabi. Can O'Malley adapt to all these sudden changes? One thing we can assume is that the moment won't get to O'Malley. His self-belief is beyond his experience and ranking.
In Yan, we have a striker who fights from a traditional muay Thai range and stance. On the other side, O'Malley, the taller, longer fighter, fights more like a karate practitioner. Stylistically, this is reminiscent of José Aldo vs. Conor McGregor, without all the bad blood. And since there is none of the same bad blood, it's unlikely that Yan will run face-first into an O'Malley counter.
Despite not having the same strength of schedule, O'Malley has still shown that he's a powerful, accurate, and clever striker who uses the full extent of his reach. He looks for opportunities to hit his opponents when they can't hit him. This is very much like prime Conor McGregor. But there's something else that's like McGregor. When O'Malley throws his rear punch, he tends to drift forward. Longer fighters missing and drifting or punching into his forearms and falling into range is how Yan overcomes distance. Yan also has a defensive style that doesn't overreact to feints. O'Malley needs his opponents to bite on his feints.
O'Malley fights from a long stance, like McGregor, which makes it easier to hop in and out to deliver power shots, but harder to block kicks. Yan will not only kick the lead leg, but he will work the entire body. He also punches high and low. If Yan lands a combination, he often finishes with a spinning attack to get around his opponent's high guard.
Being further out means you'll hit with the end of your leg when you throw a roundhouse kick. When you're punching, hitting at the end of your reach is fine. But when it's a roundhouse kick, you'll land with your foot or ankle, possibly to your opponent's elbow. You'll notice Stephen Thompson mostly throws sidekicks or kicks to the head because he knows the dangers of roundhouse kicking to the leg or body from this range. This is likely how McGregor got injured against Poirier and O'Malley against Marlon Vera.
Like Oliveira, Yan is like an avalanche coming toward you. But unlike Oliveira, he's better at defending while pressuring and attacking. O'Malley is deadly accurate and has the death touch in his right hand, but this feeds into Yan's style. However, since Yan builds his offense throughout the rounds and spends the first round getting his reads, this could be to O'Malley's advantage in a three-round fight. COULD.
Rest of the Card
Despite having strong headline fights, the rest of UFC 280 is just as strong. Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot is divisionally important but also an exciting match-up. Manon Fiorot is a hot prospect, and Katlyn Chookagian is the perfect test to see how close she is to a title fight. Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady not only has title implications but also presents a fascinating question about the strength of Brady's grappling. We know it's good, but is it championship-level good? Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir are two solid veterans who have spotty records but, despite that, can compete with the best at light heavyweight. This fight will be about who puts together a two-fight win streak and moves forward in the division. So with so many interesting fights, UFC 280 might be a card actually worth buying. MIGHT.
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